Michael Tan-Sikorski, on his single-serving site, Is AI Profitable?:

Many industry experts and companies claim AI profitability by 2030 is possible, so I wanted to see how close we really are. This site tracks cumulative spend versus revenue across most major AI companies in one place, allowing you to see exactly how much money is flowing into the industry and how far it is from breaking even.

Pretty damn far: an estimated $631 billion in revenue against $1.4 trillion in total spend.

Of course, Tan-Sikorski needs a disclaimer on the page:

The AI economy is circular: Google funds Anthropic, Anthropic runs on Google Cloud, Amazon funds Anthropic, Microsoft co-invests with OpenAI.

This means aggregate industry figures double-count some revenue flows.

Missing from Tan-Sikorski’s circular list is Nvidia (the sole company “making” “money”), which has invested in OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and many others, and in turn receives revenue from those companies in the form of chip purchases.

I’m betting this site remains an example of Betteridge’s Law (as applied to an industry) well past 2030.