Research from Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan found that large-scale, non-violent political movements have always succeeded if they reach 3.5% of the population. Many succeeded at just 1.8% of the population.

The first No Kings rallies in June brought out an estimated 5 million people angry about Trump’s authoritarian regime, about 1.45% of the population. Early estimates put today’s No Kings rallies at 7 million people, or 2% of the country.

As I noted in June when I first wrote about the 3.5% rule:

The people of America are fired up. There’s still a long way to go, but change feels possible.

Crossing the 1.8% threshold feels both momentous and insufficient. Getting to 3.5% (over 12 million people) may seem daunting, yet it’s eminently achievable, perhaps even inevitable. Change is frustratingly slow, but a change is gonna come.

Trump Republicans are railing against today’s protests, and calling it a “hate America rally,” a sign of immense fear among those in Trump’s orbit—downright laughable, even. Illustrating just how absurd it is, and how widespread the anti-Trump, pro-democracy sentiment is, my 79-year-old mother called this morning to ask if it’s OK (as in “safe and appropriate”) to attend a North Carolina No Kings protest with the other seniors from her building. When septuagenarians in walkers and wheelchairs are lining the streets to protest you, you’ve already lost. It’s just a matter of when the regime realizes it.