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The 3.5% Rule

David McRaney, host of the terrific You Are Not So Smart podcast, recently interviewed Erica Chenoweth, who formulated the 3.5% rule that’s gone viral recently. The rule—based on Chenoweth’s (and Maria J. Stephan’s) research—finds that large-scale, non-violent political movements have always succeeded if they reach 3.5% of the population. Many succeeded at just 1.8% of the population.

I noted in my aforelinked No Kings/No Coverage that those protests represented “1.2–1.8% of the U.S. population.” The people of America are fired up. There’s still a long ways to go, but change feels possible.

McRaney’s interview leans philosophical and personal—we learn why Chenoweth landed on political science as a career, for example. For a more overtly political discussion, listen to Chenoweth’s conversation on Pod Save America with Jon Favreau (“The 3.5% Protest Rule That Could Bring Down Trump”).

(In Overcast: You Are Not So Smart, Pod Save America.)

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