A couple of days ago, Tim Cook teased that “There’s something in the Air” on X/Twitter. More about that in a bit. Today, Apple released a new iPad Air, announced via press release:

Apple today introduced the faster, more powerful iPad Air with the M3 chip and built for Apple Intelligence. iPad Air with M3 brings Apple’s advanced graphics architecture to iPad Air for the first time — taking its incredible combination of power-efficient performance and portability to a new level.

It’s a very minor spec bump (to be generous). Other than the upgraded CPU (and a 0.01 lb./2g weight reduction) very little has changed from the previous M2 generation. Notably, Apple speed-compares it against the older M1-based iPad Air, not last-gen’s M2.

The M3 brings with it hardware-accelerated ray tracing (for that undoubtedly sizable segment of iPad gamers who’ve been missing it), plus 8K HEVC, 4K H.264, ProRes and other media processing muscle for those looking to record or edit their high-end video.

It’s a classic product speed bump, especially useful if you have a non M-series iPad.

Pre-orders start today, with availability starting Wednesday, March 12.

New Magic Keyboard

Along with the upgraded iPad Air, Apple announced a new Magic Keyboard “designed for iPad Air”, and at lower prices ($269 for the 11” model, $319 for the 13”). It gains a larger trackpad and a 14-key function row, as with the Magic Keyboard for iPad Pro, but loses backlit keys and trackpad haptic feedback. The price drop had to come from somewhere, right?

The big shocker: An updated iPad (no modifier) that can’t support Apple Intelligence

An update to the iPad—that is, the entry level, $349, no modifier iPad “nothing”—was relegated to an “also” in the iPad Air release:

Apple today also updated iPad with double the starting storage and the A16 chip, bringing even more value to customers. The A16 chip provides a jump in performance for everyday tasks and experiences in iPadOS, while still providing all-day battery life. Compared to the previous generation, the updated iPad with A16 is nearly 30 percent faster.

It’s an odd announcement. Double the storage at the same $349 price and an A16 chip is nothing to sneeze at for an entry level product, except we’re living in an age of Apple Intelligence, and this update leaves the iPad no-modifier as the only iPad (indeed, the only iOS or macOS device) in Apple’s lineup incapable of supporting what Apple touts as a crucial part of their products.

When Apple released the iPad mini with an A17 Pro last October, I wrote:

It’s $349, and it’s likely Apple’s best selling iPad by far, but it can’t handle Apple Intelligence: Its A14 Bionic chip is a generation older than the one in the outgoing 6th generation iPad mini. I can’t imagine Apple would let its most popular iPad lag behind without support for Apple Intelligence, so why not update it now, in a joint press release with the iPad mini?

I was mostly pondering timing: would it come in a press release; in a (then-anticipated) October event; or perhaps a new iPad-with-no-modifiers wouldn’t be coming at all:

The final possibility is rather intriguing: What if there’s no update to the iPad-with-no-modifiers, because that iPad is going away? That leaves us with a classic Good/Better/Best scenario: iPad Mini (A17 Pro, Good), iPad Air (M2, Better), iPad Pro (M4, Best).

But would Apple drop its likely best-selling iPad to execute this strategy? I’m having a tough time believing that.

My guess: A significantly upgraded iPad is coming. M4-based is a strong possibility, but my money (today) is on an A18 or A18 Pro (likely), the same chips in the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro.

I would have been less surprised if Apple had discontinued the iPad-with-no-modifiers than I am by a non-Apple Intelligence-capable iPad.

I would have been surprised, but not shocked, by an A17 or an A17 Pro iPad no-modifier. As an entry level device, using a generation-old chip would be a clear cost-saving move. What do you expect for $349, right?

Nope. Apple couldn’t be bothered to meet even that bare minimum. Releasing a “new” iPad in 2025 that’s not Apple Intelligence-capable conveys a distinct disinterest from Apple in the iPad “nothing”. It signals an end-of-life product that’s being kept on life support for purely emotional (that is, “monetary”) reasons.

Apple is a master of market segmentation. No doubt this “update” is all about satisfying a specific segment of buyers—students and kids; kiosks and points of sale; bulk buyers, like airlines; anyone with a pre-A-series iPad who needs it for daily productivity or TV viewing. Maybe even first-time buyers upgrading from an Android device.

Let’s not ignore the all important “starting at” price anchoring. In addition to mastering market segmentation, Apple has also mastered the price ladder. The 11” is too small, you say? How about the 13”? And what’s this about Apple Intelligence?

If I were recommending a new iPad to someone today, I could not in good conscience suggest the iPad no-modifier, except in some very limited instances. My guess is unless a buyer is extremely price sensitive, they were never making out the door with a $349 iPad.

“There’s Something in the Air”

Back to the beginning. When Tim Cook teased this release with this tagline, he wrote “This week.” Not “Tuesday.” You can be certain there was no uncertainty surrounding the release of the iPad Air; that date was locked weeks ahead of the announcement.

So why “This week”? The obvious answer is another “Air” product is still to drop. There has long been speculation about an M4 MacBook Air or (much less likely) a thin new iPhone—I think more people expected a new MacBook Air than a new iPad Air today—so it’s safe to assume Wednesday will see another press release (perhaps this time with a video?).

My one hope: that the M4 MacBook Air includes Apple’s new C1 cellular chip. If that happens, I’ll immediately be in the market to replace my perfectly fine, two-year-old M2 MacBook Air. A cellular Mac would be too compelling for me to pass up.

C’mon Apple, take my money!