On Friday evening, reports emerged that the Trump lottery ball dispenser—I mean administration—would exempt a range of electronics from tariffs. For example, from Bloomberg (paywalled; Apple News+ link):

President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers including Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. even if it proves a temporary one.

The exclusions, published late Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other countries.

The exclusions apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips as well as flat-screen displays. Those popular consumer electronics items generally aren’t made in the US. 

There was much rejoicing, with many excited people who, as one friend noted, now “expect tech stocks to rise Monday.”

On Saturday, The New York Times wrote these changes “spared smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics” in “the latest flip-flop” from Trump, before noting:

Still, any relief for the electronics industry may be short-lived, since the Trump administration is preparing another national security-related trade investigation into semiconductors.

Sunday morning brought the Sunday talk shows and this report from ABC News:

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the administration’s decision Friday night to exempt a range of electronic devices from tariffs implemented earlier this month was only a temporary reprieve, with the secretary announcing that those items would be subject to “semiconductor tariffs” that will likely come in “a month or two.”

“All those products are going to come under semiconductors, and they’re going to have a special focus type of tariff to make sure that those products get reshored. We need to have semiconductors, we need to have chips, and we need to have flat panels – we need to have these things made in America. We can’t be reliant on Southeast Asia for all of the things that operate for us,” Lutnick told “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl.

He continued, “So what [President Donald Trump’s] doing is he’s saying they’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two. So these are coming soon.”

Then, on Sunday evening, Donald Trump posted to “Truth” Social the following (as part of a long, tariff-related ramble):

There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff “bucket.”

No idea what “Fentanyl Tariffs” means in this context, nor why electronics are subject to them.

He also wrote as part of that ramble:

We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.

So, in the span of not quite 48 hours, we learned that electronics will be exempted from tariffs; will be exempted but tariffed in a month or two; that there was never an electronics tariff exemption; and that the entire electronics supply chain is now under investigation for what tariffs will apply—eventually.

Senator Elizabeth Warren said on ABC’s This Week:

There is no tariff policy – only chaos and corruption.

Spot on. Wall Street hates instability and inconsistency. Prices rise when the markets know what to expect, and crash when they don’t. These vacillations primarily serve to sow confusion and instill fear.

They also serve one more purpose: To drive down the prices of stocks and provide Trump’s billionaire buddies more opportunities to buy low.

This isn’t new. It’s not a secret. Trump openly brags about his friends making money off the tariff chaos. Did any of them know ahead of time the tariffs would be paused last week? People with advance knowledge could have made a fortune, observed economist Dean Baker.

Trump’s latest “Truth” Social post is a not-so-subtle signal to his cronies—less nose-tap, more bullhorn—that they should wait a bit, because prices can be expected to drop again.

Apple, for example, after crashing dramatically following the initial tariff news, rose equally dramaticallyon the news of a tariff pause, only to again sink when those hopes seemed dashed. On Friday it closed at almost $200, and was poised to rise again on Monday on the exemption news, potentially significantly. Similar stories for Nvidia and other tech stocks with China export exposure.

That cannot stand—not all of Trump’s buyers got in on the last manipulation—sorry, opportunity—and there’s still money to be made here. Will this uncertainty push Apple’s and others’ stock prices higher, or drag them down? Either way, Trump and his friends undoubtedly plan to enrich themselves further.

I’m writing this ahead of Monday’s opening bell, and I expect the market to be a rollercoaster. Just remember: you must be ‾This Rich‾ to ride.